the essential It is a study to say the least overwhelming that has just published the scientific community. They drew three scenarios to try to know what the planet would look like in 2500. The latter would gradually become hostile to Man.
The scientific community has established three scenarios, all based on the idea that the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases will gradually decrease over the next few years. “Our projections modeled low (RCP6.0), medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP2.6) mitigation scenarios, which corresponds to the objective of the Paris Agreement,” say the scientists in this report. article. When this historic agreement was signed in 2015, during the COP , the leaders of several countries are committed to limiting global warming to a maximum of 2 ° C and ideally to 1.5 ° C.
An inevitable rise in water levels
In this study, the researchers focused on several elements: what is called “thermal stress” (in short, the heat accumulated by the human body, which prevents it from maintaining its temperature at a level considered ” normal”). Scientists have also looked at the distribution and growing conditions of vegetation on the planet.
The conclusions are astonishing: the two most pessimistic scenarios (that is to say those which show a particularly weak attenuation of global warming) would have harmful consequences for humans. Heat stress would become too great for humans, who would no longer be able to naturally regulate their body temperature. “We have found that heat stress can reach deadly levels for humans in tropical regions which are currently densely populated. These regions could become uninhabitable,” the scientists believe. The areas most suited to agriculture would be increasingly reduced.
If humanity can successfully mitigate global warming, scientists predict an inevitable rise in water levels. The researchers assert that if humans are not able to rapidly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, “the next 500 years and beyond will modify the Earth in a way that will challenge our ability to maintain many elements essential to our survival “